IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
UNC Asheville
Big South
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	-4.2	#226
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	74.1	#57
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-0.1	#177

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-4.1	#294

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	12.6%	14.5%	8.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.1	15.0	15.5

.500 or above	70.4%	79.1%	53.3%
.500 or above in Conference	78.4%	83.2%	69.2%
Conference Champion	14.4%	17.4%	8.3%
Last Place in Conference	1.1%	0.6%	2.0%

First Four	3.8%	3.6%	4.3%
First Round	10.6%	12.7%	6.6%
Second Round	0.5%	0.7%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: UNC Wilmington (Home) - 66.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 3	2 - 4	2 - 6
Quad 4	14 - 6	16 - 12

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 27, 2020	253	UNC Wilmington	W	79-74	66%
Nov 28, 2020	182	Western Carolina	W	84-83	50%
Dec 05, 2020	347	South Carolina St.	W	85-67	95%
Dec 08, 2020	142	East Tennessee St.	L	71-76	31%
Dec 11, 2020	314	High Point	W	79-70	78%
Dec 12, 2020	314	High Point	W	79-70	77%
Dec 16, 2020	158	@ Chattanooga	L	74-81	26%
Dec 22, 2020	110	@ Marshall	L	80-91	16%
Dec 30, 2020	320	@ Longwood	W	76-73	61%
Dec 31, 2020	320	@ Longwood	W	76-73	61%
Jan 04, 2021	341	Presbyterian	W	83-68	90%
Jan 05, 2021	341	Presbyterian	W	83-68	89%
Jan 09, 2021	321	@ Hampton	W	85-81	62%
Jan 10, 2021	321	@ Hampton	W	85-81	62%
Jan 14, 2021	280	Charleston Southern	W	78-72	68%
Jan 15, 2021	280	Charleston Southern	W	78-72	67%
Jan 19, 2021	247	@ Gardner-Webb	L	74-76	43%
Jan 20, 2021	247	@ Gardner-Webb	L	74-76	44%
Jan 24, 2021	270	Radford	W	75-70	67%
Jan 25, 2021	270	Radford	W	75-70	66%
Feb 04, 2021	307	@ South Carolina Upstate	W	80-78	55%
Feb 05, 2021	307	@ South Carolina Upstate	W	80-78	55%
Feb 11, 2021	258	Campbell	W	76-71	65%
Feb 12, 2021	258	Campbell	W	76-71	65%
Feb 18, 2021	124	@ Winthrop	L	78-88	21%
Feb 19, 2021	124	@ Winthrop	L	78-88	21%
Projected Record						15 - 11	12 - 8

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big South Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.2	1.0	2.4	3.5	3.4	2.5	1.0	0.3		14.4	1st
2nd											0.0	0.3	1.4	3.8	5.7	6.1	3.7	1.6	0.3				22.9	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.4	2.3	4.6	5.6	3.6	1.3	0.2						17.9	3rd
4th									0.0	0.4	2.4	4.5	4.1	1.5	0.3	0.0							13.2	4th
5th								0.0	0.3	1.9	4.1	2.6	1.0	0.1	0.0								9.8	5th
6th							0.0	0.2	1.6	3.3	1.9	0.4	0.1	0.0									7.6	6th
7th						0.0	0.2	1.1	2.4	1.4	0.3	0.0	0.0										5.5	7th
8th					0.0	0.2	1.0	1.6	1.0	0.2	0.0												4.0	8th
9th				0.0	0.1	0.8	1.1	0.5	0.1	0.0													2.7	9th
10th			0.0	0.1	0.4	0.6	0.3	0.0															1.4	10th
11th	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.1																	0.5	11th

Total	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.7	1.6	2.6	3.5	5.5	7.2	9.0	10.1	11.1	11.2	10.6	9.9	7.4	5.0	2.8	1.0	0.3			Total

Big South Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.3		0.3
19-1	100.0%	1.0		0.9	0.1
18-2	88.7%	2.5		2.1	0.4
17-3	67.3%	3.4		2.4	0.9	0.0
16-4	47.4%	3.5		2.1	1.3	0.2	0.0
15-5	24.7%	2.4		1.1	1.1	0.2	0.0
14-6	9.8%	1.0		0.3	0.5	0.3	0.0
13-7	2.1%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.1%	0.0				0.0	0.0	0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	14.4%	14.4		9.2	4.3	0.8	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.3%		59.0%	51.0%	8.0%	11.5				0.0				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0			0.1		16.3%
19-1	1.0%		41.4%	41.4%		13.5									0.0			0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.0		0.6
18-2	2.8%		45.2%	45.2%		14.1													0.0	0.3	0.5	0.4	0.1	1.5
17-3	5.0%		33.8%	33.8%		14.5													0.0	0.2	0.7	0.7	0.2	3.3
16-4	7.4%		24.8%	24.8%		15.0														0.1	0.4	0.9	0.5	5.5
15-5	9.9%		21.2%	21.2%		15.4													0.0	0.0	0.2	0.8	1.1	7.8
14-6	10.6%		14.6%	14.6%		15.6														0.0	0.1	0.4	1.0	9.1
13-7	11.2%		12.9%	12.9%		15.9															0.0	0.2	1.3	9.8
12-8	11.1%		7.8%	7.8%		15.9																0.1	0.8	10.2
11-9	10.1%		5.6%	5.6%		16.0																0.0	0.6	9.6
10-10	9.0%		3.6%	3.6%		16.0																0.0	0.3	8.7
9-11	7.2%		3.0%	3.0%		16.0																	0.2	7.0
8-12	5.5%		1.2%	1.2%		16.0																	0.1	5.4
7-13	3.5%		1.2%	1.2%		16.0																	0.0	3.5
6-14	2.6%		0.6%	0.6%		16.0																	0.0	2.6
5-15	1.6%																							1.6
4-16	0.7%																							0.7
3-17	0.2%																							0.2
2-18	0.1%																							0.1
1-19	0.0%																							0.0
0-20	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		12.6%	12.5%	0.0%	15.1				0.0				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.8	2.1	3.4	6.1	87.4		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	32.0%	13.0													32.0